LEJOG or JOGLE: which direction has the better wind?
See what ten years of hourly wind data say about riding Land's End to John o' Groats north or south, month by month.
The short answer
Ride LEJOG, northbound from Land's End, if wind settles the LEJOG or JOGLE question. Over ten years of April-to-September riding hours, the wind along the route averaged a 2.6 km/h (1.6 mph) tailwind going north. Northbound riders had a headwind 29% of the time; southbound riders, 44%. The edge is real but modest.
Key takeaways
- Northbound (LEJOG) had the better wind in all ten seasons from 2015 to 2024.
- The average push is small, a 2.6 km/h (1.6 mph) tailwind, and side-on wind is four times bigger.
- August favours riding north most; April is close to a draw.
- Cornwall, Devon and Somerset show the biggest gap between the two directions.
- Prevailing isn't guaranteed, so check the route-timed forecast the week before.
Definitions
- Along-route wind
- The part of the wind blowing straight along your direction of travel; against you it's a headwind, behind you a tailwind.
- Headwind hour
- A riding hour in which the wind along the route was more than 4 km/h (2.5 mph) against you.
- ERA5 reanalysis
- A record of past weather that blends observations from around the world with a weather model to fill in every hour and place.
LEJOG or JOGLE: which way does the wind favour?
Northbound. We took ten years of hourly wind along a common Land's End to John o' Groats line and scored every riding hour from April to September, in both directions. The method, and the same test on other famous routes, is in our hub on prevailing winds on the world's great cycling routes.
| Direction, April to September | Average wind along the route, km/h (mph) | Headwind hours | Tailwind hours | Strong headwind hours, over 15 km/h (9 mph) | Modelled riding time vs still air |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEJOG (northbound) | 2.6 (1.6) tailwind | 29.4% | 44.4% | 5.4% | 1.8% quicker |
| JOGLE (southbound) | 2.6 (1.6) headwind | 44.4% | 29.4% | 14.6% | 6.7% slower |
The other 26.2% of hours were side-on or calm. The cause is the UK's westerly and south-westerly habit: along the route, the wind came most often from the west (19.2% of riding hours) and south-west (18.9%), and only 6.2% from the north.
The push is gentle. The average side-on wind, 10.3 km/h (6.4 mph), was four times bigger. It still counts, because a headwind costs more than a tailwind gives back, so riding south loses more than riding north gains.
Which months favour riding north?
All of them, on average, but by very different amounts. August gave northbound riders the most help in the riding season; April was close to a draw.
| Month | Average wind along the route northbound, km/h (mph) | Headwind hours, north / south | Modelled time vs still air, north / south |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.5 (0.3) tailwind | 36.3% / 37.0% | +1.7% / +3.4% |
| May | 1.4 (0.9) tailwind | 33.6% / 39.9% | +0.1% / +4.7% |
| June | 2.2 (1.4) tailwind | 30.2% / 42.5% | −1.1% / +5.9% |
| July | 3.4 (2.1) tailwind | 25.8% / 47.1% | −3.3% / +7.5% |
| August | 4.9 (3.1) tailwind | 22.6% / 52.0% | −5.3% / +10.5% |
| September | 3.3 (2.0) tailwind | 28.1% / 47.5% | −2.7% / +8.0% |
In April, head and tailwind hours were almost equal, yet both directions came out slower than still air: mixed wind costs more than it repays. May's small push only just broke even northbound. Out of season the pattern strengthens; December averaged a 6.6 km/h (4.1 mph) northbound tailwind.
Want this for your own route? Windline shows the wind for every stretch, timed to your pace. Free. Make a free ride page →
Is the northbound advantage the same every year?
The direction is; the size isn't. In all ten seasons from 2015 to 2024, April-to-September wind favoured riding north.
The weakest was 2021, with a 1.0 km/h (0.6 mph) northbound tailwind; the strongest was 2017, at 3.4 km/h (2.1 mph). So no single windy year skews the result.
Your trip, though, is two weeks, not six months. Even northbound, 29.4% of riding hours had a headwind.
Where along the route does the wind matter most?
In the south-west. The first section, from Land's End to Bristol, shows the biggest gap between the two directions.
| Section (April to September) | Length, km (miles) | Northbound tailwind, km/h (mph) | Headwind hours, north / south | Modelled time, north / south |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornwall, Devon and Somerset | 276 (171) | 4.5 (2.8) | 28.1% / 52.3% | −3.8% / +10.9% |
| Welsh Marches and north-west England | 404 (251) | 1.9 (1.2) | 30.7% / 40.9% | −1.1% / +5.0% |
| Scotland | 514 (319) | 2.2 (1.4) | 29.1% / 42.8% | −1.3% / +5.7% |
In July and August this section averaged northbound tailwinds of 7.9 and 8.2 km/h (4.9 and 5.1 mph), on hilly roads where Cicerone's route crosses Dartmoor.
The ends are the most exposed. Riding-hour wind averaged 22.3 km/h (13.9 mph) near Land's End and 22.7 km/h (14.1 mph) near John o' Groats, against 12.1 km/h (7.5 mph) around Glencoe and Fort William in the Highlands. Near John o' Groats the most common direction was south-east (21.0% of hours): the far north doesn't always follow the national pattern.
Our verdict: should you ride LEJOG or JOGLE?
If wind decides it, ride LEJOG. The northbound edge held in every month and every year we tested.
But it's a tiebreaker, not a deal-breaker: our model rider saves about four hours of pedalling over two weeks. If logistics or dates point you south, JOGLE is a perfectly good ride. Our LEJOG route guide covers everything else about the route.
What else should decide your direction?
Several things can outweigh a 2.6 km/h (1.6 mph) average.
- Route notes. Cicerone's guide and Cycling UK's End to End pack describe the route south to north. Cicerone adds notes and GPX tracks for JOGLE riders.
- Getting there and home. Both ends are remote, so price both journeys first.
- Hills. LEJOG puts Cornwall and Devon's climbing on fresh legs; JOGLE saves it for the end.
- Daylight. Summer days lengthen as you go north, so riding north in June gives you the longest evenings late in the trip.
- Traffic. Cycling UK's pack offers a fast route on busy A roads and quieter B&B and YHA routes. That choice matters more than direction.
How should you plan around the wind for your dates?
Treat the averages as your starting point, then let the forecast for your dates take over.
- Pick the direction and month from the data above. July to September gives the most help riding north.
- Leave slack. A spare day stops one stormy day breaking the plan. See planning a multi-day tour.
- Check the forecast against the road a week out and the evening before each day. A town forecast won't show which stretches face the wind: reading a forecast for a bike ride explains why.
- Know your limits. Check how windy is too windy to cycle; official warnings always come first.
Riding a different classic? The same method answers the question for the Pacific Coast route in the US and touring in the Netherlands. For more ideas, see the best cycling routes in Europe.
Frequently asked questions
How much time does the wind save if you ride LEJOG instead of JOGLE?
In our model of a loaded touring rider who does 24.1 km/h (15.0 mph) in still air, April-to-September wind made northbound riding 1.8% quicker than still air and southbound 6.7% slower. Over our 1,193 km (741-mile) sample line, that's about 48.6 hours of pedalling northbound against 52.8 hours southbound: a gap of roughly four hours.
Does the wind on LEJOG turn northerly in May?
Not on average. You'll read that the wind swings round in late spring, but in ten years of data no month averaged a headwind for northbound riders. April came closest to a draw, with a 0.5 km/h (0.3 mph) tailwind northbound. May still favoured riding north, by 1.4 km/h (0.9 mph), and the advantage grew through summer.
Can I trust reanalysis wind data for a bike ride?
For climate questions, yes; for a single day, no. ERA5 averages wind over grid cells about 31 km (19 miles) across, at 10 m (33 ft) above ground. Hedges, hills and towns change what you feel at saddle height. It's good for "which way usually wins", and the forecast for your dates is what tells you about your ride.
Do crosswinds matter more than headwinds on LEJOG?
Often, yes. Between April and September the average side-on wind along the route was 10.3 km/h (6.4 mph), four times the 2.6 km/h (1.6 mph) average push along the road. Crosswinds slow you less than headwinds, but gusts from the side are what move you around in traffic. Our guide to [riding in crosswinds](/blog/cycling-in-crosswinds/) covers technique.
How many days does it take to cycle Land's End to John o' Groats?
About two weeks for most touring riders. Cicerone's guidebook splits its roughly 1,000-mile (1,600 km) route into 14 stages, with 10 to 18 days as alternatives, and Cycling UK's End to End pack plans its scenic routes over 14 to 16 days. The wind won't change that much: our model puts the gap between directions at hours, not days.
Get the wind for your ride.
Upload a GPX, add your start time and pace, and see the headwind, gusts, rain and heat for every stretch of the route, timed to when you’ll be there. Free for riders.
Make a free ride page →Sources and method
- Copernicus Climate Change Service (ECMWF) (2026). ERA5 hourly time-series data on single levels from 1940 to present
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2020). The ERA5 global reanalysis (Hersbach et al.)
- Copernicus Climate Change Service (ECMWF) (2026). ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present
- ECMWF (2026). ERA5: data documentation (native resolution 31 km)
- Cycling UK (2018). Cycling Land's End to John o' Groats? Get the End to End pack
- Cicerone Press (2021). Cycling Land's End to John o' Groats (Richard Barrett, 3rd edition)
Windline's data desk took hourly 10 m wind (the u and v components, turned into speed and direction) from the Copernicus Climate Data Store, dataset ERA5 hourly time-series data on single levels (reanalysis-era5-single-levels-timeseries, doi:10.24381/1cf1ad76), for 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2024 (ten full years). ERA5 is described by Hersbach et al. (2020). The route is a common cycle-touring line through 52 towns (Land's End, Bodmin, Taunton, Bristol, the Welsh Marches, Warrington, Lancaster, Shap, Carlisle, Moffat, Glasgow, Loch Lomond, Glencoe, Fort William, the Great Glen, Inverness and the A9 coast to John o' Groats), 1,193 km (741 miles) measured point to point; real road routes are longer. It is not an official route. The line was cut into pieces of at most 25 km, and each piece takes its wind from the nearest ERA5 cell: every 0.25° grid cell along the route, about every 25 km (53 cells), so results are weighted by distance. ECMWF gives the model's native resolution as about 31 km, so these are area averages, not roadside readings. Figures for places are the nearest grid cell on the route: near Land's End 50.0° N 5.5° W, near John o' Groats 58.5° N 3.0° W, and around Glencoe and Fort William 56.75° N 5.0° W (the calmest cell on the line). Riding hours are the values stamped 08:00 to 17:00 local time inclusive, with British Summer Time applied. The riding season is April to September (months 4 to 9). For each hour and each piece, the along-route wind is the wind speed times the cosine of the angle between where the wind comes from and the direction of travel; riding the other way flips the sign. A headwind hour has more than 4 km/h (2.5 mph) against you, a tailwind hour more than 4 km/h behind you, and "strong" means more than 15 km/h (9 mph). The rest are side-on or calm. The side-on figure is the average size of the crosswind part. Wind direction shares count where the wind comes from in eight sectors; hours under 5 km/h (3 mph) count as calm. Modelled riding time uses a steady-power touring rider: 100 kg (220 lb) of rider, bike and luggage, 120 W, rolling resistance 0.006, drag area 0.45 m², air density 1.2 kg/m³, which gives 24.1 km/h (15.0 mph) in still air. Wind at rider height is taken as 0.65 times the 10 m wind, and crosswind drag is ignored. The hours in the FAQ are our arithmetic: 1,193 km / 24.1 km/h = 49.5 hours, times 0.982 (48.6 hours) and 1.067 (52.8 hours). Every other figure is in results.json in the study's data folder. Imperial conversions use 1 mile = 1.609 km. Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information (ERA5, 2015–2024); neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use of this information.
About the author
Wes Thomson, Founder, Windline. Wes Thomson builds Windline, live wind and weather forecasts timed to when riders reach each stretch of road. He built it for his own 2,093 km tour from Pont Drift to Cape Town, and writes these guides with the same focus: what the wind will do to your ride, and how to plan around it.